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Special Report on

Ordinary Decision Theory

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Simulation models provide a key means of investigating, amongst other things, the response of the biosphere to climate change. But just how reliable are their predictions? I will articulate the methodology of modelling in context of my own discipline, biological oceanography. I will ponder the extent to which this methodology is rigorous and whether it conforms to the supposedly exalted (at least among scientists) hypothetico-deductive method. As with all science, modelling has its pros and cons; those wishing to be uncharitable could extend the oft-quoted phrase to: "There are lies, damned lies, statistics and ...
(more "radical" dealing with the "institutions-history-social structure nexus"). However the primary textbook distinction is between microeconomics , which examines the economic behavior of agents (including individuals and firms, consumers and producers), and macroeconomics , addressing issues of unemployment, inflation, economic growth, and monetary and fiscal policy for an entire economy. Cite error: There are tags on this page, but the references will not show without a {{Reflist}} template or a tag; see the .
Overcoming Bias : Schools Aren't Creative
In forming my view that school functions in part to help folks accept workplace domination, I rediscovered the view of the ‘76 book Schooling In Capitalist America : Here is some evidence from that book : Getzels and Jackson … subjected a group of 449 high school students to an IQ test and a battery of exams which purport to measure creativity. They found no appreciable correlation between measured IQ and measured creativity. The top 20 percent in IQ on the one hand, and in creativity on the other, were singled out and asked to rank certain personality traits (a) on the degree to which they would like to have these ... market research, surveys and trends
Cultural Evolution 8: Language Games 1, Speech
had a considerable influence on me as an undergraduate. No, I’m thinking of game theory, not something I’ve studied, though I did have an undergraduate course on decision theory taught by R. B. Braithwaite. But I’m getting ahead of the game. As the title says, this post is about language. There’s been a fair amount of work done on language from an evolutionary point of view, which is not surprising, as historical linguistics has well-developed treatments of language lineages and taxonomy, the “stuff” of large-scale evolutionary investigation. While this work is directly relevant to a ... market research, surveys and trends


News Indexed by Topic - GAMES & PUZZLES
Iceland Review Online. "Reykjavík University (RU) opens the 2007 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Festival in Reykjavík Theater today at 1 pm. Icelandic experts in AI will present their projects and research in this field, including AI world champion Dr. Yngvi Björnsson. Dr. Ari K. Jónsson, who used to work as a scientist at NASA, will also give a presentation at tomorrow’s festival, as well as Grímur Jónsson from Össur, who will talk about AI in artificial limbs, and a representative from Marel, who discusses AI in food processing." Also see: Icelanders world champions in artificial intelligence industry trends, business articles and survey research
News Indexed by Topic - COGNITIVE SCIENCE
swissinfo. "To help maintain its competitive edge, the Swiss banking industry is investing heavily in financial engineering. Its latest recruit is economist Peter Bossaerts. swissinfo talked to Bossaerts, a leading expert in neuroeconomics – the study of how we make financial choices - about his recent appointment as professor at the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne. ... swissinfo: So what exactly is neuroeconomics? Peter Bossaerts: It's a mixture of decisional theory - mathematical theories applied in risk-based decision-making - and neuroscience. ... Neurofinance, therefore, tries to understand how ... industry trends, business articles and survey research
General McChrystal and the Wages of Hypocrisy
Mr. LeVine is professor of modern Middle Eastern history, culture, and Islamic studies at the University of California, Irvine, and author of An Impossible Peace: Oslo and the Burdens of History (Zed Books, 2009). His blog can be found here . Of the many questions surrounding the sudden career implosion of General Stanley McChrystal, the one to which no one has yet been able to offer a satisfactory answer is why. Could it really be that one of the gurus of twenty-first-century counter-insurgency and black ops, the man responsible for rewriting the army's counter-insurgency field manual, for finding and killing Abu Musab ... market trends, news research and surveys resources
Court ruling on anti-corruption law impacts Alaska cases
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday scaled back an anti-corruption law used by federal prosecutors to bring to justice crooked politicians and executives, including some cases connected to the Alaska public corruption probe. The decision threatens the prosecution of former Alaska state Rep. Bruce Weyhrauch for his role in a wide-ranging federal investigation of the state's politics, and also raises questions about the high-profile convictions of former Enron CEO Jeffrey Skilling and newspaper magnate Conrad Black. In a unanimous opinion on the Skilling case, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote that it's ... market trends, news research and surveys resources


Feb 26, 2009 ... ordinary Decision Theory is that each DM has to take into account the decisions other DM's could make while making its own decision. ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
NPWRC :: Statistical Significance Testing
What should we do instead of testing hypotheses? As Quinn and Dunham (1983) pointed out, it is more fruitful to determine the relative importance to the contributions of, and interactions between, a number of processes. For this purpose, estimation is far more appropriate than hypothesis testing (Campbell 1992). For certain other situations, decision theory is an appropriate tool. For either of these applications, as well as for hypothesis testing itself, the Bayesian approach offers some distinct advantages over the traditional methods. These alternatives are briefly outlined below. ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
A Foundation for Causal Decision Theory
These conditions are satisfied, I believe, in the ordinary decision situations where we expect CEU theory to give the correct evaluations of the available ...
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Is govt about to make ammo so expensive, ordinary people will not ...
I keep hearing stories about upcoming huge tax increases on ammunition, aimed at making it prohibitively expensive for ordinary citizens. This is said to be a "back-door" attack on Second Amendment rights, the reasoning being that government can't take your gun away, but CAN make sure you can't get ammo to shoot in it! Is this just another kind of urban legend, or is there any truth to it? Lotsa people seem to want to blame President-Elect Obama for this kind of reasoning!!!!!!!!!!! There's a huge tax on cigarettes and booze, yet people who want it still manage to afford it. It sounds like another ...
Do companies treat employees poorly because they know they can get ...
Having worked in many industries, for many years, I have seen more than one “economic downturn”, or “recession”. In each case, people are treated as disposable commodities. The prevailing attitude seems to be, “To heck with it. Pay 'em as little as we can get away with, and throw them out as soon as they're done. We can always find more workers.” Although there is always some of this from companies whose boards are filled only from the sales ranks, it gets bigger when times are tough. Additionally, while those poor folks are employed, they get blatantly mistreated in the ...