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Questions in Decision Theory

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Objective and Subjective Rationality in a Multiple Prior Model

A decision maker is characterized by two binary relations. The first reflects decisions that are rational in an “objective” sense: the decision maker can convince others that she is right in making them. The second relation models decisions that are rational in a “subjective” sense: the decision maker cannot be convinced that she is wrong in making them. We impose axioms on these relations that allow a joint representation by a single set of prior probabilities. It is “objectively rational” to choose f in the presence of g if and only if the expected utility of f is at least as high as that of g given each and every prior in the ...

Questions in Decision Theory - Trends

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Expected utility theory vs. prospect theory: implications for ...

According to Bourgeois, strategic choice means that "the top management or dominant coalition always retains a certain amount of discretion to choose courses of action that serve to coalign the organization's resources with its environmental opportunities and to serve the values and preferences of management" (1984: 591). Indeed, it is suggested that organizations are reflections of their top managers (Hambrick and Mason, 1984) and the choices they make (Chaganti and Sambharya, 1987). Researchers in strategic management have begun to investigate strategic decision making at the individual level of ...

Wikipedia

Decision problem

with a yes-or-no answer, depending on the values of some input parameters. For example, the problem "given two numbers x and y , does x evenly divide y ?" is a decision problem. The answer can be either 'yes' or 'no', and depends upon the values of x and y . Decision problems are closely related to function problems , which can have answers that are more complex than a simple 'yes' or 'no'. A corresponding function problem is "given two numbers x and y , what is x divided by y ?". They are also related to optimization problems , which are concerned with finding the best

FEATURED BLOG

Itzhak Gilboa is a prominent economist who has made large contributions to decision theory, including the theory of decisionmaking under uncertainty (as opposed to risk) and the use of case-based or analogical strategies of reasoning, both of which are important topics for legal theory. In this unpublished paper, Gilboa offers a relatively informal and accessible overview of conceptual and empirical problems in and with decision theory. Gilboa writes as a sympathetic and informed critic from within, rather than a hostile critic from without, which gives his analysis all the more weight. ... Read More

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The Legal Blotter » Blog Archive » Decision in Florida case ...

Legal scholars have described the law surrounding the Constitution’s Takings Clause, which prohibits the government from taking private property for public use without just compensation, as “a hopeless mess,” “famously incoherent” and “a muddle.” Well, the field of takings law just got more muddled. Last week, in stop the Beach Renourishment Inc. v. Florida Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ... market research, surveys and trends

The opportunity for opportunity analytics — JT on EDM

Some time ago Neil Raden and I did some research on analytics. It was clear as we did this that there were two main threads of analytic use in companies – risk analytics and opportunity analytics. I blogged before on the use of analytics to manage risk one risk at a time so I thought I would write about opportunity analytics. Risk analytics are about using historical data to make a prediction about the risk of a particular customer, a particular transaction going or being bad in some way. Risk analytics help you estimate and account for the downside risk of a decision – if I get this wrong, what’s the worst ... market research, surveys and trends

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Flawed Probabilistic Philosophy

The person would then discount the law's penalty by fifty percent3 and .... Itzhak Gilboa, Questions in Decision Theory, (unpublished manuscript, available at ...... defensive medicine at between $100 billion and $124 billion, ... industry trends, business articles and survey research

Evolution Poll Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- Although most scientists subscribe to the theory of evolution as the best explanation for the origin of human beings, a recent Gallup poll shows that the American public is much more divided in its own beliefs. Americans choose "creationism" over "evolution" when asked which of these two terms best describes human origins, but slightly larger numbers of Americans choose one of two evolutionist explanations than choose a strict creationist explanation when given a choice between three specific views. At the same time, only about a third of the public say that Charles Darwin�s theory of evolution ... industry trends, business articles and survey research

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Questions in Decision Theory*

Questions in Decision Theory*. Itzhak Gilboa†. August 2009. Abstract. This note surveys a few major questions in the field of decision theory. ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics

Beyond statistical inference: A decision theory for science

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests—which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude—as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics

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QUESTIONS IN DECISION THEORY

Questions in Decision Theory

Questions in Decision Theory - Trends

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QUESTIONS IN DECISION THEORY