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Special Report on

Reflexivity in Finance

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Economist Robert Barro looked at international data on stock market crashes of greater than 25% to see whether they were associated with depressions. He defined a depression as a fall in real GDP of greater than 10%. These depressions lasted on average 4 years. He came up with a 20% probability of a depression based on this data. For more detail see I thought it was an interesting but fairly simplistic approach. Let's do some quick guesstimates based on a wider and more relevant range of data. 1. He just looked at stock prices data and looked at declines of over 25%. ...
refers to circular relationships between cause and effect. A reflexive relationship is bidirectional; with both the cause and the effect affecting one another in a situation that renders both functions causes and effects. In sociology , reflexivity therefore comes to mean an act of self-reference where examination or action 'bends back on', refers to, and affects the entity instigating the action or examination. In this sense it usually refers to the capacity of an individual agent to recognize forces of socialization and alter his or her place in the social structure . An example is the interaction between beliefs and ...
nightly (value) investment links #80
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All About Risk: Thinking Dangerously about Climate Change, Hazards ...
It’s a classic chicken-and-egg problem: which comes first? The perception of risk, or attempts to manage it?  Don’t attempts to manage risk teach us how to perceive it? How can those who are tasked with managing risk (in whatever flavor) incorporate the range of human variability in perception to inform quality decision-making and effective system design? The dynamic of perception and management plays out in nested fashion from individual emotion & cognition to social interaction to the institutional mechanisms intended to regulate social relations which, in turn, shapes the boundaries of how a person is or ... market research, surveys and trends


Economist's View: "An Umbrella that Melts in the Rain"
Medical problems contribute to a large proportion of bankruptcies. I wonder how much a health care plan that protects people from losing everything when serious illness hits would have helped to soften the economic crisis: Illness, medical bills linked to nearly two-thirds of bankruptcies, EurekAlert : Medical problems contributed to nearly two-thirds (62.1 percent) of all bankruptcies in 2007, according to a study in the August issue of the American Journal of Medicine that will be published online Thursday. The data were collected prior to the current economic downturn and hence likely understate the current burden ... industry trends, business articles and survey research
Economist's View: Fed Gives AIG an $85 Billion Loan in Exchange ...
As noted in an update to the post below this one, the Fed is going to give AIG an $85 billion loan in exchange for an 80% stake in the company: Fed Readies A.I.G. Loan of $85 Billion for an 80% Stake, NYT : In an extraordinary turn, the Federal Reserve was close to a deal Tuesday night to take a nearly 80 percent stake in the troubled giant insurance company, the American International Group, in exchange for an $85 billion loan, according to people briefed on the negotiations. In return, the Fed will receive warrants, which give it an ownership stake. All of A.I.G.’s assets will be pledged to secure the loan, these people ... industry trends, business articles and survey research


finance, and political science. This paper briefly reviews three theories of reflexivity in cybernetics. It provides an introduction to Soros's version of ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
Public Comment: C046, Michael “Mack” Frankfurter, Chief Investment ...
May 7, 2008 ... contention is that the reflexive interaction between market .... including the theory of reflexivity and behavioral finance, originate. ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
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What is 'reflexive sociology' and / or 'reflexivity'? - Yahoo! Answers
In social theory, reflexivity may occur when theories in a discipline should apply equally forcefully to the discipline itself, for example in the case that the theories of knowledge construction in the field of Sociology of Scientific Knowledge should apply equally to knowledge construction by Sociology of Scientific Knowledge practitioners, or when the subject matter of a discipline should apply equally well to the individual practitioners of that discipline, for example when psychological theory should explain the psychological mental processes of psychologists. More broadly, reflexivity is considered to occur when the ...
The common ground in Foucault and Giddens work in structure vs ...
Is it fair to compare Foucault and Giddens theory of knowledge in the sense that they wiev structure and subject the same way? I think about Giddens structuration theory and Foucaults refusal of a hidden structure that underpins historical events and furthermore his rejection of phenomenological research? Please refer to scientific material. The principle of reflexivity was perhaps first enunciated by the sociologist William Thomas (1923, 1928) as the Thomas theorem: that 'the situations that men define as true, become true for them.' Sociologist Robert K. Merton (1948, 1949) built on the Thomas principle to ...