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Special Report on

The US yield curve

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By expanding the macro part of macro-finance models, historical fluctuations in US bond yields turn out to be largely consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. We estimate a medium-scale macro-finance DSGE model of the term structure to establish this. Our finding contrasts with existing macro-finance models and suggests that their--small-scale or non-structural--perspective on the macroeconomy mutes expectations, thereby underestimating the expectations hypothesis' potential. Out-of-sample forecasts are competitive with more flexible term structure models. Given the empirical validation, we interpret various ...
for various maturities are closely watched by many traders, and are commonly plotted on a graph such as the one on the right which is informally called "the yield curve." More formal mathematical descriptions of this relation are often called the term structure of interest rates . The yield of a debt instrument is the overall rate of return available on the investment. For instance, a bank account that pays an interest rate of 4% per year has a 4% yield. In general the percentage per year that can be earned is dependent on the length of time that the money is invested. For example, a bank may offer a "savings ...
U.S. Treasury Bonds Rally on Disturbingly Weak Fundamental Data ...
The bond market was stronger again last week as bonds rallied with help from more, persistent disturbingly weak fundamental data and an equity market that is still in search of a bottom. Before I move on to bigger and better things, I just wanted to congratulate the G20 on doing their part to foster economic activity.  All those broken windows, burning cars and the rest of the damage that was done in spite of – or should we write “in addition to” – the billions of dollars that were spent on security.  That is a lot of money and trouble to be spent on a couple of Polaroid ... market research, surveys and trends
What Is The US Yield Curve Saying About The Economic Outlook ...
In our weekly Top Down Outlook we have analysed the development of the yield curve and its messages as regards the economic outlook The onset of the New Year has failed to lessen investor uncertainty concerning the ongoing economic recovery and equities uptrend. Based on a recent economic commentary by the Cleveland Fed economist Joseph Haubrich , we have used the yield curve as a forecasting tool to try understanding what might happen to the economy in the months to come. Indeed, since the 80s, a large number of academic studies have suggested that the yield curve is a reliable predictor of recessions: for example, ... market research, surveys and trends


Market Skeptics: *****The Steepening US Yield Curve And The Fed's ...
Before reading the articles below, have a look at this chart which shows treasury yields for all maturities. Notice how long term rates have started moving up sharply. The growing gap between short and long term yields means the US yield curve steepening. The Fed is confused (emphasis mine) [my comment] Federal Reserve puzzled by US yield curve steepening Reuters, Sunday May 31 2009 By Alister Bull WASHINGTON, May 31 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is studying significant moves in the U.S. government bond market last week that could have big implications for the central bank's strategy to combat the country's recession. industry trends, business articles and survey research
My guess is that they’ll eventually state that it ended during Q4 2009 or Q1 2010, and that they’ll take their sweet time to get around to doing it. GDP growth rates turned positive in Q3 2009 and thus far, unemployment peaked in Q4, and I would guess that those will be some of the primary drivers that will be used to choose a date. curve forecast is well taken in here this morning,………. fish might still be in the barrel, but the water sure has gotten murkier….. was hoping you’d get a chance yesterday to comment on IB’s comment on what will shock be: In Banking The shock will be ... industry trends, business articles and survey research
Five world markets themes next week
(Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them. 1/ DOUBLE TROUBLE? After some ugly recent economic numbers from the United States and perky forecast-beating data from the euro zone, investors in a quandary over where to put their money will be keenly watching second quarter U.S. GDP data due on July 30. Even though true double-dip recessions are rare, after Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's saying the U.S. outlook is "unusually uncertain," and official talk of possible further monetary easing measures by ... market trends, news research and surveys resources
No double dip? The facts suggest otherwise
e have been on the receiving end of endless analysis suggesting double-dip recession risks in the U.S. are either zero or completely trivial. The primary reasons given for this view are: the positively sloped yield curve, negative real short-term rates, no sign of inventory excess and no sign of a flattening in the trend in the leading indicators (aside from the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly leading index). We were sent one particular Street report recently that began with a comment on how the analysis incorporated data from the last eight recessions in the United States. But why are these eight recessions in ... market trends, news research and surveys resources


The US Treasury Yield Curve: 1961 to the Present
fit the U.S. yield curve well and being parsimonious enough to avoid .... typically fits the U.S. yield curve. Figure 5 provides more details by showing the ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
U.S. Treasury - Daily Treasury Yield Curve
30-year Treasury constant maturity series was discontinued on February 18, 2002 and reintroduced on February 9, 2006. From February 18, 2002 to February 8, 2006, Treasury published alternatives to a 30-year rate. See Long-Term Average Rate for more information. Treasury discontinued the 20-year constant maturity series at the end of calendar year 1986 and reinstated that series on October 1, 1993. As a result, there are no 20-year rates ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?*
We thank Vivian Yue for providing us the yield curve data, and Charles Nelson, Richard ..... estimate a VAR model for the US yield curve and GDP growth. ...
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Is Barclays Bank a safe bank to have money in during the credit ...
Just wondered if it was safe to have my money in, i don't have the shares just my savings which are below 50 thousand pounds so do i need to worry about the bank suffering during the credit crunch I would keep my money there. They warned of this "Credit Crunch" when nobody else would listen. I would be more willing to keep my money in a bank that was warning of the problem during the time when Bush, The Fed, and others were saying everything is fine. Barclays knew better. If they were telling people there was a problem when the "poli - trick - sters" was saying everything was fine and Barclays turned out to be correct ...
WikiAnswers - What is the yield curve
The yield curve is the relationship between an interest rate and the time to maturity for a given debt. Typical debts may be U.S. Treasury debt instruments (T-Bills, T-Notes, etc.) or the LIBOR lending rate. A yield curve is normally upward sloping, where short term lending would pay a lower rate (since it incurs less risk on the part of the borrower) compared to longer term lending (which places more risk on the borrower). In general the longer amount of time the lender loans money, the more that it earns as a result. However, yield curves -- adjusted daily -- can vary in their shape depending on current economic conditions, ...