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Fighting the FED model
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"Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity." On Monday, the New York Fed released its latest "Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread," with data through February 2009 and its recession probability forecast through February 2010 (see chart above, click to enlarge). The NY Fed's model uses the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates (currently at 2.57%) to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead (see chart below of ...
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Under testing from 1996-2009, the Ultra Conservative Strategy of investing had a compound annual rate of return of 11.47% as compared to 6.20% for the S&P 500 and 8.39% for Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares(Source: CSRP-Center for Research in Security Prices). Click here to review the full research. A Letter From The Founder & Chief Investment Strategist, Doug Roberts Dear Friend and Fellow Investor, Most people, including some very savvy investors, are shocked when I tell them that most mutual funds do not beat the market as represented by the S&P 500. People are actually paying fees and expenses for the privilege of ...
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Due to their close association with humans, cats are now found almost everywhere on Earth. Their adaptability, rapid breeding rate, and predatory instincts make them effective hunters. In some locations, cats have affected indigenous animal populations; this has led them to be classified as an invasive species in some areas. Most problems are caused by the large number of feral cats worldwide, with a population of up to 60 million of these animals in the United States alone. 3 Failure to control the breeding of pet cats by spaying and neutering and the abandonment of former household pets cause the development of such feral ...
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It is popular in the investment punditry to criticize the Fed, blame the institution and the members for all problems, and claim that nearly anyone could do a better job than the incumbents. It is great fun in the Will Rogers tradition, and very popular in the blogosphere. The audience is heavily skewed toward Tea Parties. Most of the popular bloggers and big-time pundits commenting on the Fed have been wrong at every point. First they failed to predict what the Fed policy would be. This is actually the most important thing for investing. Having missed ... Read More
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REVIEWS AND OPINIONS
a couple of months back, Carrie Hamilton said that “there is not a feminist on the planet who isn’t outraged at sexual and domestic violence, as well as the overwhelming evidence of the complicity of governments, police forces and justice systems in perpetuating this violence and protecting its perpetrators.” However, she added, “this serious problem cannot be understood, or challenged, in isolation from other forms of violence and oppression, such as racism, restrictive labour and migration laws, and poverty.” Unfortunately, the “favourite topics” of a lot of feminist groups today ...
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Just two of the articles circulating today regarding the huge losses the US Taxpayer is going to take on the bailout of AIG: By SERENA NG A watchdog panel reviewing the bailout of American International Group Inc. said U.S. taxpayers “remain at risk for severe losses” and that the government didn’t act aggressively enough to protect U.S. taxpayers during the 2008 rescue. In a lengthy report, the bipartisan Congressional Oversight Panel concluded that the U.S. government, which owns nearly 80% of the insurance giant, is likely to “remain a significant shareholder in AIG through 2012″ and it is ...
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Sallie Mae, the nation's largest student-loan company, spent $2-million on lobbying in the first half of this year in an effort to persuade lawmakers to consider alternatives to President Obama's plan to end bank-based lending to students and replace it with direct lending, according to an analysis by The Huffington Post. The lender, which is pushing a counterproposal that would allow student-loan companies to originate loans before selling them to the government, has hired several Washington-based lobbying firms, including a group led by Tony Podesta, a top Democratic fund raiser with longstanding ties to members of ...
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In Chapter 4 we look at the concept of control and how fear is used to control us while we use fear to control ourselves. We learn we make reality fresh every day and we examine the dynamic of apathy. For those of us who come up short, we learn it’s not what you have but how you use it and we visit with the Nailman, who explains that there's no trying, just doing. Analysis of the CMBS market with a few notes on CC and ABS market. "Household Sector." Could this become even more infamous than green shoots? Before the Fed's insanity becomes the death of the Republic, could we please do a comprehensive balance ...
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WASHINGTON — At the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and top Federal Reserve officials told the nation that there was an urgent need for the government to lend $85 billion to the American International Group so the giant insurer's temporary cash squeeze wouldn't trigger global financial chaos. Nearly two years later, taxpayers are on the hook for twice that amount, and it now appears that Paulson and senior Federal Reserve officials either plunged ahead without understanding AIG's financial situation and the risks it posed to taxpayers — or were less than candid ...
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Take a look back at the last few weeks, and it appears the White House is issuing new orders to federal agencies at a feverish pace. There were this week's instructions to find ways to trim at least 5 percent from agency budgets . Officials bragged this week that the number of Freedom of Information Act dropped last year because Obama told agencies to post more information online . Last week President he ordered agencies to extend more employment benefits to the partners of gay federal workers. He's also mandated changes to the federal hiring process and there will be more later this week. All of the changes have come ...
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INFORMATION RESOURCES
fighting the FED model. Roelof Salomons. *. University of Groningen and AEGON Asset Management. April 24, 2004. * Correspondence to Roelof Salomons at AEGON ...
technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
It begins with a quick flash of blue lightning.
The weather in this remote wooded valley is stormy, but rain
hasn't fallen on the parched forest in weeks. Fanned by the high winds, the small flame sparked by the lightning
spreads quickly in the thick mat of dried twigs, pine needles,
and fallen branches. Standing dead trees catch, and within hours
the blaze has lit the canopy. A modest spark is quickly escalating
into a blistering firestorm. "Hmmm, that's no good," says the forest manager as
she regards the computer screen alongside her colleague. "Let's
try it again. ...
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Asness (2003), for example, calls for FAJ readers to fight the Fed model ...... Asness, C., 2003, Fight the Fed model: the relationship between future ...
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FIGHTING THE FED MODEL
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QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
Today's Finance is still in its infancy as a science. The domain of what we know pales in comparison to what we actually know we don't know . For example, we know that our understanding of the basic mechanisms of asset valuation (stocks, real estate, gold) is limited , confused and non-operational for the most part. Who can tell and predict the value of stocks today? Investors are offered conflicting views (rational vs. irrational), quick recipes, and voodoo advice. The "pseudo" scientific mathematical models that are offered today, far from resolving real-world problems do revel in their own complexity in ...
LinkedIn will be performing scheduled maintenance this evening between 21:00 and 23:00 Pacific Time (04:00-06:00 GMT). The site will be unavailable during this time. Thanks for your patience as we perform these upgrades to LinkedIn's service. Hope it works, but I think it's an uphill battle to try and reform a system so entrenched that most people can't understand exactly what it does, let alone whether it's a good thing or not... posted 11 months ago Experienced Inventory and Demand Manager see all my answers Best Answers in: Government Policy (55), Government Services (5), Supply Chain Management (4), ...
