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Special Report on

Forecasting Financial Markets

forecasting financial markets special research report Photo by
Judging from the literature, in particular the wide range of popular finance books, the possibility of predicting future movements in financial markets ranges from significant (see, for example, the many books on chartism) to impossible (see, for example, [14]). Another scenario of course does exist that financial markets may neither be predictable or unpredictable all the time, but may instead have periods where they are predictable (i.e. non-random) and periods where they are not (i.e. random). Evidence for such ‘pockets of predictability’ were found several years ago, by Johnson et al. [10]. A similar study was reported ...
has been taking place in an economic environment characterized by various imbalances and was sparked by the outbreak of the financial crisis of 2007–2010 . Although the late-2000s recession has at times been referred to as "the Great Recession ," this same phrase has been used to refer to every recession of the several preceding decades. 1 In July 2009, it was announced that a growing number of economists believed that the recession may have ended. 2 However, in the United States, the requisite two consecutive quarters of growth in the GDP did not actually occur until the end of 2009. The financial crisis has been ...
Technical Setups
On a weekly basis Dodjit’s site provides its readers with a fundamental and technical outlook of the global markets, focusing on the U.S stocks and Forex. Even though we have now entered a new calendar year, economic data remains unchanged, forcing officials from around the world continue to battle deteriorating economies, while market ... market research, surveys and trends
Ebook Financial Asset Returns, Direction - of - Change Forecasting ...
We consider three sets of phenomena that feature prominently and separately in the financial economics literature: conditional mean independence (and hence no forecastability) in asset returns, dependence (and hence forecastability) in asset return signs, and dependence (and hence forecastability) in asset return volatilities. We argue that they are very much interrelated, forming a tangled and intriguing web, a full understanding of which leads to a deeper understanding of the subtleties of financial market dynamics. Let us introduce them in turn. First, consider conditional mean independence, by which we mean that an asset ... market research, surveys and trends


Berkshire to GS: "I Got $5 Billion, but - The Big Picture
Tonight's Goldman Sachs/Warren Buffett deal is a classic example of our post 2001 news: Looks good as a headline, is godawful underneath. Of course, futures popped on the announcement. The WSJ subhead read "Move by Famed Investor Amid Crisis Seen as Vote of Confidence in Banking System." Puh-leeze. Vote of confidence? Hardly. Doubtful. It is merely an opportunistic deal, and probably a damn good one, for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). On the other hand, for Goldman Sachs, it is a very expensive deal. If you delve beneath the headlines, you see that Warren is not so much making a vote of confidence as he is extracting pound of ... industry trends, business articles and survey research
AIG Bailout - The Big Picture
1) AIG is the world's biggest insurer. AN uncontrolled bankruptcy would have dramatically exacerbated the current recession -- possibly turning it into a depression; 2) The NY based firm was also a huge Credit Default Swap insurer /underwriter. The tems of CDS require collateral to be posted, depending upon such factors as credit rating and credit spreads;As home prices fell, spreads widened, and companies went down, AIG's collateral requirements went up significantly. 3) Hence, this is more of a liquidity problem than an actual insolvency. This is the first bailout that adhered to Walter Bagehot's dictum "Central ... industry trends, business articles and survey research
Investors like Fed's move
ith the Federal Reserve again acknowledging that its forecasting skills aren’t so hot, investors appear to be cheering the Fed’s apparent commitment to at least do something about the slowing U.S. economic recovery. In its monetary policy statement , released on Tuesday afternoon, the central bank alluded to the steady stream of disappointing economic data, which include Friday’s weak monthly payrolls report. The Fed said that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed, unemployment remains high, business lending has contracted and housing starts are stuck at depressed levels. T he result: The ... market trends, news research and surveys resources
Why insurers are the least qualified to predict markets
here’s a joke that says an actuary is someone who would rather be completely wrong than approximately right. Unfortunately for investors, insurance companies and their armies of actuaries are turning out to be dead wrong about markets far too often. First, it was monoline bond insurers and American International Group blowing up because of the protection they sold against bond defaults. Now it’s Manulife Financial Corp. MFC-T destroying shareholder value because of its handling of what are essentially insurance contracts on stocks. Manulife has a $114-billion portfolio of so-called variable annuity products that ... market trends, news research and surveys resources


FORECASTING FINANCIAL MARKETS: ADVANCES FOR EXCHANGE RATES, ... FORECASTING FINANCIAL MARKETS 2010. CONFERENCE PROGRAMME. Day 1: Wednesday 26 May 2010 ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
Federal Reserve Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts of ...
A few earlier authors have studied financial market forecasts of .... While financial market forecasts of short-term interest rates in the 1990s were be- ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review
VOLATILITY FORECASTING IS AN important task in financial markets, and it has held .... Poon and Granger: Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets ...
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I can change and I hope my CV can as well ... | Ask MetaFilter
I've been employed as a Visiting Lecturer in Econometrics at a University in the London since early 2003, a job that typically takes about six hours a week. In that position I've lectured on 'Forecasting Financial Markets', and 'Corporate Finance' (the capital markets track for that course) teaching against a UK approved syllabus for one year, or two complete academic terms each. Since 2005 my primary responsibility has been to tutor students through their Masters dissertations, in areas that compliment my industry experience or research interests (Risk Management, Structured Products, Asset ...
Will the Dow Jones Iindustrial Average rise or fall on Moday ...
In which direction will the Dow Jones Iindustrial Average on move Monday the 2nd of August immediately after the opening and will it close up or down on the day. Observing members: 0 Composing members: 0 I can, with the utmost confidence, assert with 50% certainty that it will go up on 8/2/10. I believe it will go down because of all the talk about deficit reduction. Do you mean the Dow Jones Industrial? The news on the economic front is still not good, but who knows? The Dow has been rising and falling all month in ways that don’t correlate to much. Apple profits were very good this quarter but slightly lower that the ...