Special Report on
Is The Fed Model Useful
Is The Fed Model Useful - Trends
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It continues to fascinate me that investors are entirely willing to base their financial security on concepts that can be wholly disproved with even a cursory look at historical data. The Fed Model is the predominant example of this at present. The following chart should be sufficient to reiterate that the effect of interest rates on stock valuations is vastly overrated, and that raw earnings yields (particularly based on peak earnings to date) explain subsequent market returns far better than indicators that �adjust� for interest rates in the one-for-one way the Fed Model does. The truth is that the relationship between stocks ...
Here’s something I would like to do – it is far too much work for me (or I suspect less than a team of 30) to actually do, but never mind that, let’s just run with it. First, build a mini model of the banking system as a set of autonomous agents. You’ll need a variety of banks and brokers, securities markets and lending, central banks and monetary policy, treasury activities and trading, investment managers and hedge funds. The simulation does need not be hugely complex: a few different securities will probably do for instance, but prices should be set by real ... Read More
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IS THE FED MODEL USEFUL
Authors@Google: David Wessel
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