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by either displacing existing technology or introducing a new concept to society. The automobile and digital photography are examples of disruptive technologies that have changed society by replacing horses and films. From an investor�s perspective, recognizing a disruptive technology early helps to not only earn spectacular profits but also avoid secular losers. Nick Hampshire, President of The Precision Media Group, ' We are looking at these devices becoming as ubiquitous as today's cell phone. ' Steve Haber, President of Digital Reading at Sony Electronics, ' This is the beginning of the moment. ' ...
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is increasingly used in portfolio risk measurement, risk capital allocation and performance attribution. Financial risk managers are therefore rightfully concerned with the precision of typical VaR techniques. The purpose of this paper is to assess the precision of common dynamic models and to quantify the magnitude of the estimation error by constructing confidence intervals around the point VaR and expected shortfall (ES) forecasts. A key challenge in constructing proper confidence intervals arises from the conditional variance dynamics typically found in speculative ... Read More
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