Special Report on
The “Fed Model”
The “Fed Model” - Trends
Latest Trending Story:
In recent years, price/earnings ratios based on �forward operating earnings� have been embraced by Wall Street as a replacement for valuations based on trailing net earnings. The beliefs of investors about what represents a �normal� P/E, however, have not changed � despite the change in the earnings measure being used. Meanwhile, the Fed Model � the notion that the earnings yield of the S&P 500 (based on forward operating earnings) should be equal to the 10-year Treasury bond yield, has been embraced as a simple and reliable method of valuing stocks. It's likely that these beliefs will prove disastrous for investors. The ...
" this week with treasury yield data through July 2010, and the Fed's recession probability forecast through July 2011 (see top chart above). The NY Fed's Treasury model uses the spread between the yields on 10-year Treasury notes (3.01% in July) and 3-month Treasury bills (0.16% in July) to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession up to twelve months ahead ( see details here ) using the spread between those two yields (2.85% in June, see bottom chart above). The Fed's model ( data here ) shows that the recession probability peaked during the October 2007 to ... Read More
SURVEY RESULTS FOR
THE “FED MODEL”
- leenaAphotog Another fed hill session in the morning...an up and coming model/ actor.
- jonathon_welch RT @Mrbosslady: I'm tired of looking at ads for work and thinking the model needs to be fed a cheeseburger.
- Mrbosslady I'm tired of looking at ads for work and thinking the model needs to be fed a cheeseburger.
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