Special Report on
The Marginal Product of Capital
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ECONOMIC THEORY has much to say about the relationship between uncertainty and investment. Taken as a whole, however, what theory has to say is ambiguous. Different theories emphasize different channels, some pointing to a positive relationship and some to a negative relationship. Given this ambiguity, it is surprising that little empirical work has been done aimed at signing the effect of uncertainty on investment and sorting out the relative importance of these various channels. The goal of this paper is to establish some stylized facts concerning this relationship and then to evaluate the various theories in light of these ...
Economic theory suggests that marginal product of capital series might help predict economic growth forward one or two years, even under abnormal conditions such as wartime or depression. In some situations, the marginal product of capital is an essential ingredient in cost-benefit analyses (Harberger 1968; Byatt, et al., 2006; Mityakov and Ruehl, 2009). Evidence on the marginal product of capital can also help test various explanations for business cycles, and help identify causes and consequences of the recent housing “bubble.” The purpose of this paper with Luke Threinen is ... Read More
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