Special Report on
The New Fed Model
The New Fed Model - Trends
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Over the long term, corporate earnings are a principal driver of stock valuations. Operating earnings, more than as-reported ( Generally Accepted Accounting Principles ) earnings, convey prospects for future earnings. Therefore, aggregate S&P 500 operating earnings are a critical input for both the Real Earnings Yield (REY) Model and the Reversion-to-Value (RTV) Model of the U.S. stock market. For several years, these models used publicly available aggregate S&P 500 earnings forecasts from Standard and Poor’s and Reuters (prior to their merger with Thomson Corporation). As described in “Quarterly ...
The data are limited to post 1960 interest rates. The 2007-2009 recession was unlike any period since 1960 because it was the first financial panic since 1929. Financial panics were more common in our nation's past, and the economic response coming out of these panics are different than our standard recessions. For example, in 1936, short term interest rates (3 mo gov treasuries) ranged from 0.11-0.20%. Long term government interest rates (10 yrs+) ranged from 2.59-2.78%. This was a very positive yield curve in 1936. Based on the formula used in the link you provided, this ... Read More
SURVEY RESULTS FOR
THE NEW FED MODEL
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