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Special Report on

Timing Beats Rebalancing!

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The Efficient Market Theory is a lie (that humans do not possess emotions) that generated many other lies (the claim that the safe withdrawal rate is a constant number is only the most dangerous of a large number of such little stinkies that have come to our attention during the discussions of the past six years) during its years of influence. We have called out The Big Lie and few have been willing to put forward much of an effort to defend it in reasoned debate; I think it would be fair to say that those few who have been willing to give it a shot have been less than successful. It�s all over but for the shouting. A model ...
by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market, rather than for a particular financial asset.
Why Timing Market Swings Is a Bad Idea - CBS
Increase inflows after observing periods of strong performance, buying at high prices when future expected returns are lower Sell after observing periods of poor performance, when future expected returns are now higher Perhaps this behavior is what led Warren Buffett to conclude: “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” On March 10, the S&P 500 Index began its greatest rally since the Great Depression. However, investors were once again demonstrating that financial writer Jonathan Clements was right when he stated: “If you want to see the greatest threat to your financial ... market research, surveys and trends
asset allocation beats the market every time
Tim Ferris had an excellent blog post about common sense advice in investing.   Kinda of last minute advice but it was all excellent.  Here is my favorite quote. 92% of your return is determined by asset allocation, 6% my manager/stock selection, and 2% by timing. I’ve been a huge fan of asset allocation.  When I meet investors I also ask them what their percentages are.  I can quickly tell the amateurs from the professionals with this one question.  Most people have no idea what asset allocation is.  Heck, most financial advisors don’t have any clue.  Which is scary. As the above quote says asset allocation is very ... market research, surveys and trends


Portfolio Allocation Shocker -- Timing Beats Rebalancing!
Investors seeking guidance on how to set their portfolio allocation have been hearing for 25 years now that short-term timing does not work. It may be that for the next 25 years they will be hearing a seemingly contradictory bit of advice -- that long-term timing does work. The contradiction is a surface one. The same historical stock-return data that shows that short-term timing (changing your portfolio allocation with hopes of receiving a benefit within one or two or three years) rarely works also shows that long-term timing (changing your portfolio allocation with hopes of receiving a benefit within 10 years and of seeing ... industry trends, business articles and survey research
October 2007
The "Die Broke!" concept is a radical one. The idea is that you should not aim to have lots of wealth to pass along to your children or to charities when you die but to use up every last bit of your accumulated wealth during your own lifetime, except perhaps for a few dollars to cover funeral expenses. I don't like. This idea is going to cause a lot of busted retirements. To reference this entry please copy the url in this link: (Permalink) October 2, 2007 13:11 - Spending on Food I've added an article to the "The Turned-On Budget" section of the site entitled Spending on Food. Juicy Excerpt: ... industry trends, business articles and survey research
Don't Bet the Farm, Try These Strategies Instead
Claude Shannon, who thought of the now-familiar binary digits 0s and 1s, advocates rebalancing -- always having half of your capital in stocks and half in cash. In 1965 Steve McQueen starred in The Cincinnati Kid , the classic poker movie of all time. This movie has so far saved me from becoming ultra-broke or ultra-rich. The climactic scene in the movie involves a showdown hand of five-card stud between Steve McQueen (“the Kid”) and Edward G. Robinson (“The Man”). This scene made an indelible impression on me during my school years. With three cards dealt, Robinson bets heavily on a possible flush, a ... market trends, news research and surveys resources
Retail Surprise: Luxury Beats Discounters
Many investors and analysts had expected discount retailers to do well last month. At a time when the U.S. economic recovery appears to be slowing, it makes sense that shoppers would be looking for bargains. Apparently not. The most striking trend in June retail sales figures released today is by how much pricier department stores and luxury retailers beat expectations. Discounters, meanwhile, largely disappointed investors. Bloomberg News reports : Sales at Nordstrom [ JWN ], the U.S. department-store chain with more than 100 locations, jumped 14.1 percent at stores open at least a year, more than the 9.1 percent average ... market trends, news research and surveys resources


Dynamic Strategies for Asset Allocation
n Disciplined rebalancing also typically beats a momentum strategy. ... the simulated investment performance of market timing rebalancing strategies (e.g., ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
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possible, but you're not likely to beat their returns when you factor in risk. ..... originally selected the Aggressive Model, at the time of rebalancing ... technology research, surveys study and trend statistics
Active Alpha Portfolio Management - Graziadio Business Report
The following analysis and research was performed in July 2008. Since then, global financial markets have endured one of the largest dislocations in history in terms of price and volatility. Such a "Black Swan" event (on trading desks, the expression "Black Swan" has come to indicate major outliers) left practically no asset class or strategy unscathed, but it did reinforce the concept that passive portfolios and simple "buy-and-hold" strategies may not constitute optimal investments. The idea of active alpha portfolio management and its practical suggestions (the utilization of exchange-traded ...
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With an investment portfolio what's the best rebalancing strategy?
The idea of a well diversified portfolio is that different segments of the market do not rise and fall in synchrony. The more diversified you are, the more likely you will be able to withstand the ups and downs of any one segment.  You will profit from your winners and minimize your losses.  But there is a downside too.  You will also lose the sometimes huge swings to the upside that one segment or stock may take. If you are always selling your winners as soon as they go up a bit you will not benefit nearly as much from their upside. There is also the cost of trades - short term taxes paid and the cost of the ...
Book Excerpt: The Lazy Person's Guide to Investing
If you invest like an institution, you're doomed to perform like one, which in most cases isn't very well. If you're a surfer, a truck driver, a high school dropout, or an eccentric retiree, then you've got an edge already. -Peter Lynch, One Up on Wall Street SCOTT BURNS IS A SYNDICATED FINANCIAL COLUMNIST WITH THE Dallas Morning News. His lighthearted, impish sense of humor makes him a big favorite among Texans, not to mention a growing audience throughout the country. And it's easy to understand why he's so popular once you read any of Scott's columns or visit his Web site. His ...